U.S. spending on health care is projected to grow an estimated 4.2% in 2021, down from 9.7% in 2020, as spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic fell, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reported today in Health Affairs. The agency expects economic growth to outpace health spending growth through 2024, and the government share of health spending to fall to 46% as COVID-19 supplemental funding wanes. It then expects the health share of the economy to increase to 19.6% by 2030. 

“While there is still considerable uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic, its related health and economic impacts are projected to lessen in the next few years,” said lead author John Poisal, deputy director of CMS’ National Health Statistics Group. “From 2025 onward, we expect economic and demographic factors to reemerge as the most influential drivers of health sector spending trends.” 

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