CBO projects OBBBA to increase uninsured by 10 million, federal deficit by $3.4 trillion

Jul 21, 2025 - 03:37 PM
capitol hill 900x400

The Congressional Budget Office today released its estimate of the budgetary effects of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, as enacted. CBO projects the law will increase the number of people without insurance by 10 million in 2034, as well as increase the budget deficit by $3.4 trillion over the 2025-2034 period relative to CBO’s 2025 baseline. This includes an estimated $1.06 trillion reduction in federal spending for changes made to the Medicaid program and Health Insurance Marketplaces in Subtitle B. Most of the reductions in this section can be attributed to provisions that implement community engagement (or “work”) requirements for Medicaid expansion beneficiaries ($325.6 billion reduction), freeze Medicaid provider taxes ($191.1 billion reduction) and reduce funding for state directed payments ($149.4 billion reduction).

Related News Articles

Headline
AHA toolkit includes resources to promote 2026 open enrollment 
The AHA has released a social media toolkit with sample posts and graphics encouraging people to sign up for 2026 health coverage via the Health Insurance…
Headline
KFF analysis highlights limited physician access in Medicare Advantage plans
A new report from KFF reveals that Medicare Advantage enrollees had access to just 48% of the physicians available to Traditional Medicare beneficiaries in…
Headline
Survey finds premiums for employer-based family health coverage rose to nearly $27,000 in 2025 
Annual premiums for employer-sponsored family health coverage in 2025 increased 6% over last year to $26,993, according to KFF’s annual Employer Health…
Headline
OIG says MA, Medicaid managed care plans have limited, inaccurate behavioral health provider networks 
A report by the Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Inspector General found that many Medicare Advantage and Medicaid managed care plans…
Headline
AHA encourages MedPAC to refine analysis of MA enrollment impacts on patients, providers
The AHA Oct. 3 responded to the Medicare Payment Advisory Commission’s recent analysis on the financial impacts of Medicare Advantage enrollment growth on…
Perspective
Holding Commercial Health Insurers Accountable
Public
“Trust but verify” is a phrase often associated with President Reagan and the need to ensure that treaties enacted with the Soviet Union were being upheld.…