6 Key Projections: How Healthcare Demand Will Shift Over the Next 10 Years

Ambulatory care is expected to become the “new center of gravity” for health systems over the next decade, with outpatient volumes projected to grow 20% by 2036, according to the 2026 Impact of Change forecast from Vizient.

The forecast draws on a broad set of healthcare data and market intelligence and applies proprietary forecasting methodologies to assess factors affecting demand for services across the country. The resulting report provides an overview of how forces such as the aging population, increasing acuity, new technologies and innovations in care delivery will reshape the healthcare landscape across various service lines.

For hospital and health system leaders seeking insights to inform forward-thinking strategies and decision-making, here are some notable takeaways from the forecast.

6 Key Projections From Vizient’s Report For Healthcare Demand In 2036

From 2026 to 2036, inpatient growth will continue to slow, while ambulatory service demand will remain “robust yet fragmented” as disruptors enter the upstream wellness arena, according to the forecast. Additionally, access issues will lead to avoidable utilization across the healthcare system.

The report highlights the following as key projections for the healthcare field during the upcoming decade:

1 | Inpatient discharges will increase by 7%.

Higher-acuity surgery and medical admissions are expected to drive demand for inpatient services, with cardiovascular (13%), medicine (11%) and neuroscience (11%) service lines experiencing the most significant growth.

2 | Outpatient volumes will increase by 20%.

As patients seek care in affordable settings, health systems and disruptors will respond to demand for treatment in outpatient settings. Cardiovascular (29%), neurosciences (27%) and behavioral health (22%) service lines are expected to experience the most growth.

3 | Pediatric outpatient volumes will grow by 6%.

While declining birth rates and bed closures impact inpatient treatment, clinical innovation and care delivery redesign will lead to outpatient service line growth, with behavioral health leading with projected 17% growth.

4 | Cancer patient volumes will increase by 20% in outpatient settings and 2% in inpatient settings.

As the population ages and cancer rates increase, demand is expected to grow for outpatient cancer care services such as diagnostics, treatment and follow-up care.

5 | Emergency department volume will rise by 6%, driven by high-acuity cases.

High-acuity cases will spur growth in emergency department inpatient care demand, while low-acuity visits are expected to migrate to alternate care sites.

6 | Post-acute care is expected to grow by 31%.

In combination with the aging population, new care models and innovation are expected to drive significant post-acute care growth, with home and domiciliary hospice visits projected to experience the largest increase (41%), followed by home and domiciliary evaluation and management visits (34%) and other home visits (30%), also show significant growth.

Additionally, the forecast predicts that 20% of all evaluation and management visits will be conducted virtually by 2036, representing 19% growth compared with 2026.

The Bottom Line for Hospitals and Health Systems

Ultimately, demographic shifts, higher acuity, affordability concerns, new technologies and other factors will continue to influence the healthcare field and affect demand for services. What hospital care delivery looks like will evolve significantly as utilization shifts to settings beyond traditional brick-and-mortar inpatient spaces.